Guesswork?

I’m quite “for” the idea of Brum being 2013 City of Culture. I’m not convinced that the council have the skills to make it great, and I’m still cynical about the idea that “the possibility” of hosting the “Brit Music Award, MTV music Awards, the BAFTAs, the Stirling Prize, the Turner prize” (all private organisations who can make their own decisions) will result in any of that actually happening — but in any event it’s better to have culture than not.

I am interested in the means used to justify it all (when huge cuts are being foisted on the council workforce). Minister for Fun Cllr Mullaney says :

“The benefits of winning this award will be enormous and can be summed-up as follows:

1. An estimated boost to the regional economy of £200 million.
2. The creation of thousands of jobs in our growing creative sector.”

and so on to where the more esoteric, but obvious, points about raised profile are made.

I’ve genuinely no idea how this is calculated, what I do know is that this sort of thing gets printed in the press and is then accepted as fact. I’ve wondered aloud before about how much benefit to the residents these “boosts to the economy” actually bring — and look a City of Culture would be exactly 10 times as good as a Conservative party conference.

I wonder if anyone’s done a real analysis of how the “estimated boosts” stand up to real ones — or should we give the practise the “estimated boot”?

And here’s waiting for the ‘CBSO plays the hits of Felt’ outdoor concert.